Federal Government Budgets and Budget Outcomes
Expert reviewed • 14 August 2024 • 9 minute read
The federal government budget is a crucial economic document that outlines the government's fiscal policy for the coming year. It details planned government revenue and expenditure, reflecting the government's economic priorities and strategies. Understanding federal budgets and their outcomes is essential for comprehending the broader economic landscape and the government's role in shaping it.
What is the Structure of the Federal Budget?
The Australian federal budget typically consists of two main components:
- Revenue: This includes all sources of government income, primarily from various forms of taxation.
- Expenditure: This covers all government spending, including social services, infrastructure, defence, and debt servicing.
The difference between revenue and expenditure determines the budget outcome. For example, a budget surplus occurs when revenue exceeds expenditure. Conversely, a budget deficit occurs when expenditure exceeds revenue. Finally, a balanced budget is when revenue and expenditure are equal.
Budget Processes
Implementing the federal budget process involves several steps:
- Budget Proposal: The executive branch, typically led by the Ministry of Finance or Treasury Department, prepares a budget proposal.
- Legislative Review: The proposed budget is reviewed and amended by the legislature (e.g., Congress or Parliament).
- Approval and Implementation: Once approved, the budget is implemented, and funds are allocated to various departments and programmes.
- Monitoring and Adjustment: Throughout the fiscal year, the budget is monitored, and adjustments are made as necessary to address changing economic conditions.
Key Components of the Australian Federal Budget
Revenue Sources
The Australian federal budget has many revenue sources. However, the main ones are:
- Income Tax: The largest source of federal revenue, including both individual and company tax.
- Goods and Services Tax (GST): A 10% tax on most goods and services.
- Excise and Customs Duty: Taxes on specific goods like fuel, alcohol, and tobacco.
- Other Sources: Including mining royalties, dividends from government-owned enterprises, and various fees and charges.
Major Expenditure Categories
Expenditure categories consistently change when new budgets are implemented. For example, the JobSeeker programme was only implemented once COVID-19 started. However, major budgetary expenditure categories include:
- Social Security and Welfare: The largest expenditure category, including aged pensions, disability support, and family benefits.
- Health: Funding for Medicare, public hospitals, and other health initiatives.
- Education: Spending on schools, universities, and vocational training.
- Defence: Military spending and national security.
- General Public Services: Including public debt interest payments and foreign affairs.
Analysis of Recent Budget Outcomes
COVID-19 Impact (2019-20 and 2020-21)
The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented budget deficits. The 2020-21 deficit of $134.2 billion was the largest in Australia's history as a percentage of GDP (6.5%). Major expenditures included:
- JobKeeper wage subsidy programme: $89 billion
- Cash flow boost for businesses: $35.9 billion
- Coronavirus Supplement: $20.5 billion
These measures were crucial in supporting the economy during lockdowns and uncertainty.
Recovery Phase (2021-22 and 2022-23)
As the economy began to recover, the deficit reduced to $79.8 billion in 2021-22 and $33.1 billion in 2022-23. This improvement was driven by:
- Stronger than expected economic growth
- Higher commodity prices boosting company tax receipts
- Lower unemployment reducing welfare expenditure
Return to Surplus (Projected 2023-24 and 2024-25)
The 2023-24 Budget saw a return to a modest surplus of $9.3 billion. This is attributed to:
- Continued economic growth
- Fiscal restraint in new spending measures
- Increased tax receipts due to low unemployment and high commodity prices
Structural vs. Cyclical Budget Positions
It's crucial to distinguish between structural and cyclical components of the budget:
- Cyclical Component: This reflects the impact of the economic cycle on the budget. During downturns, tax revenues fall and welfare payments increase automatically.
- Structural Component: This represents the underlying budget position, abstracting from cyclical factors. It's a better indicator of the long-term sustainability of fiscal policy.
The Australian Treasury estimates that the structural budget balance will improve from a deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2022–23 to a surplus of 0.4% of GDP by 2026–27.